Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 0.303669 0.350870 0.402213 0.462107 0.529955 0.604317 0.691881
2025-06-29 0.224254 0.283288 0.352672 0.439869 0.546118 0.670944 0.828241
2025-07-06 0.167667 0.230695 0.310424 0.417841 0.557819 0.732970 0.967492
2025-07-13 0.135524 0.202275 0.292777 0.422868 0.603167 0.842017 1.179676
2025-07-20 0.107035 0.173231 0.269336 0.416471 0.632827 0.935380 1.385458
2025-07-27 0.087671 0.153436 0.255375 0.421022 0.678427 1.056802 1.646471
2025-08-03 0.072783 0.137462 0.244257 0.427938 0.728606 1.191612 1.944833
2025-08-10 0.056488 0.115493 0.219484 0.409005 0.735926 1.263249 2.158294
2025-08-17 0.043030 0.095349 0.193799 0.383838 0.728947 1.311239 2.340785
2025-08-24 0.034520 0.082571 0.178742 0.374579 0.747443 1.402902 2.605390
2025-08-31 0.027793 0.071710 0.165092 0.365378 0.764435 1.493849 2.879480
2025-09-07 0.023958 0.066237 0.161187 0.374509 0.816983 1.653950 3.292967
2025-09-14 0.018660 0.055989 0.145373 0.357305 0.817695 1.723227 3.558593
2025-09-21 0.014941 0.048553 0.134180 0.347918 0.832962 1.822530 3.893457
2025-09-28 0.011860 0.041805 0.123001 0.336336 0.841792 1.910586 4.218005
2025-10-05 0.010270 0.038867 0.120719 0.345446 0.897763 2.101453 4.768791
2025-10-12 0.008542 0.034871 0.114652 0.343986 0.929417 2.245505 5.240744
2025-10-19 0.007374 0.032315 0.111992 0.350884 0.982146 2.441662 5.843969
2025-10-26 0.006421 0.030159 0.109979 0.359193 1.039774 2.655724 6.508848
2025-11-02 0.005097 0.025996 0.100625 0.344873 1.037721 2.733716 6.883344
2025-11-09 0.003927 0.021863 0.090100 0.324667 1.016684 2.764440 7.154672
2025-11-16 0.003210 0.019350 0.084347 0.317744 1.030535 2.880691 7.635791
2025-11-23 0.002620 0.017119 0.078916 0.310606 1.042595 2.993940 8.121760